US Fed Governor Urges Interest Rate Cut, LME Copper Fluctuates and Closes Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, December 23, 2025
LME copper opened at $11,939/mt overnight. It initially touched a high of $11,959.5/mt, then the price center fluctuated downward to a low of $11,877/mt, before rising and fluctuating rangebound, finally closing at $11,911/mt, a gain of 0.34%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots and open interest reached 345,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2602 opened at 94,030 yuan/mt overnight. It touched a high of 94,290 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then the price center gradually moved lower, probing down to 93,620 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 93,920 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 61,000 lots and open interest reached 243,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On December 21, the International Energy Forum (IEF) reported that over 60% of global demand for critical minerals relies on international trade. With the development of clean energy, demand for copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, etc., continues to grow, while supply is highly concentrated. Geopolitical factors, export restrictions, and processing bottlenecks increase risks. Countries are strengthening supply chain security and international coordination.
(2) On December 22, Kazakh mining company Kazzinc issued a tender for its entire 2026 copper concentrate production. They also stated that the company plans to launch a new marketing model next year and issue more tenders for its zinc and other metal production.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On December 22, SMM's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2601 contract were quoted at a discount of 240-150 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 195 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 93,340 to 94,010 yuan/mt. In the early session, the SHFE copper 2601 contract fluctuated rangebound between 93,520 and 93,870 yuan/mt in the first period, then rose slightly to around 94,080 yuan/mt in the second period. The inter-month price spread was basically between C230 and C180. Premiums recovered today; if the SHFE copper contango structure continues to widen, spot premiums are expected to decline further.
(2) Guangdong: On December 22, Guangdong's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a discount of 100-50 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 75 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 170-150 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 160 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 93,675 yuan/mt, up 1,220 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for SX-EW copper was 93,590 yuan/mt, up 1,225 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, the sharp rise in copper prices led to downstream wait-and-see sentiment. Suppliers significantly lowered premiums to sell, resulting in overall quiet trading.
(3) Imported Copper: On December 22, warrant prices were $40-56/mt, QP January, with the average price up $5/mt from the previous trading day. B/L prices were $45-57/mt, QP January, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $6-16/mt, QP January, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late December and early January.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on December 22, the futures closing price was 94,160 yuan/mt, up 1,510 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was -195 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 600 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 82,600-82,800 yuan/mt, up 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,560 yuan/mt, down 123 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,410 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices surged unexpectedly, with the discounts against futures contract for secondary copper rod approaching a maximum of 2,300 yuan/mt, while the discounts against futures contract for bare bright copper including tax were 3,200 yuan. Actual sales of secondary copper rod faced losses, resulting in sluggish transactions during the day.
(5) Inventory: On December 19, LME copper cathode inventory decreased by 2,650 mt to 157,750 mt; on December 22, SHFE warrant inventory increased by 2,803 mt to 48,542 mt.
Price: On the macro front, US Fed Governor Milan urged continued interest rate cuts but indicated that the necessity for a 50-basis-point cut had weakened, boosting market expectations for a rate cut in January. Additionally, the zero TC for copper concentrates long-term contracts intensified concerns about supply deficits, supporting copper prices. On the fundamentals, supply side, arrivals of imported copper remained tight, while domestic supply arrivals were normal, resulting in a generally tight supply landscape. Demand side, soaring copper prices continued to suppress downstream purchasing sentiment. Overall, copper prices are expected to continue rising today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]